A Brief Thought On Late Stage Play

After responding to a post over at the Poker in Colorado forums, I thought I'd share it here. Take it for what it's worth, it's one donk's opinion related to latish stage play. In particular, when you find yourself with a mid pocket pair in early-to-mid position in an unopened pot.

The original poster offered up a scenario of fiding a medium to large pair (up to QQ) in such a position, and asked whether a player should open shove, or perhaps put in a standard raise (presumably, to be followed by calling any 3-bet preflop). The original poster's logic, which I agree with, is that "AK will almost always call here if you shove and often ace doesn't hit board on flop, so if you just raise, you may be able to bet AK off of hand, unless they are big-stacked."

Anyway, the poster asked which play has is more +EV.

I couldn't really say which has the better long term +EV potential. However, I've run into this situation a few times recently myself, and have come to the conclusion that it's a pretty good spot for a stop and go play. Or, I suppose a modified stop and go, since you'd be open raising, as opposed to the classic stop and go, which would consist of flat calling preflop, and shoving any flop.

You could put in an open raise between 2.5-3.5x the BB (if 3.0x would be 1/2 your chips, I'd go closer to 2.5.), and if a later player flat calls, you can shove any flop. Even if an ace hits the flop, shoving the flop could reasonably push out smaller aces, say, through A8 (such donk shouldn't be flat calling your open raise in the first place, but they often do). If villian has a large ace and is in late position, they're probably 3-betting enough to put you all in preflop anyway, in which case you can conceivable still lay down here if you have enough of a read on villian. However, I think that's a weakish play, and don't recommend this form of stop and go unless you're prepared to call any reraise behind you. Otherwise, you're best preflop play is simply shoving or folding.

Though in most cases, if you're open raising early with 77-TT, you're probably calling a 3-bet anyway. You're opening these hands knowing you're essentially committed to calling off the rest of your chips to a preflop reraise. But then, if your decision is whether to open-shove, or open-raise followed by a shove on any flop that doesn't include an ace, you're probably keen to call the reraise anyway.

If you try this move, you almost have to shove any flop that isn't AAx (because your preflop caller won't put you an ace in your pocket if you shove here and he's holding an ace, because you'd be slow playing flopped trips). Frankly, it all depends on villian's concept of fold equity and his stack size, to a certain extent. But here's the thing, if you open raise, versus an open shove, and you don't bet the flop, you'll be either check-folding the flop or much more likely, calling from way behind. So you have to take the lead.

This form of modified stop-and-go is probably a much easier play with TT-QQ than with 77-99, in that the latter requires a bit more intestinal fortitude. But remember, we're doing this trying to get someone with a weak A to call, and unless the ace hits the flop, there's a good enough possibility you're still ahead, and even if you're not (example, if ATo calls and flop is something like KT5r, or if A3-A6 calls, and flop is something like AQTr), the shove on any flop should still induce a fold a good enough measure of the time to make this a profitable play.

Still, I'd recommend having a decent table image and decent read at the time you try it. I imagine this is workable whether you're playing live poker or online poker.

Am I wack here, or is this even sound strategy?

I'm interested in others' ideas here, particularly folks like LJ, Hoy, Lucko, and others who tend to run deep in MTTs often enough to have been able to see this situation more than a few times.

EDIT: As LJ pointed out, there's no real mention of stack sizes, and only vague mention of position. Again, this is pretty much just a theoretical possible strategy, but assume average (or slightly below) stack size, and seating anywhere from UTG to MP2. If your stack is shorter than that, and you want to play the mid to QQ pocket pair, you're better off just open-shoving. If you're larger than average stack this deep in the tourney, your plays aren't really limited to the couple talked about here.

It's Waffles' Fault

You are The Fool

The Fool is the card of infinite possibilities. The bag on the staff indicates that he has all he need to do or be anything he wants, he has only to stop and unpack. He is on his way to a brand new beginning. But the card carries a little bark of warning as well. Stop daydreaming and fantasising and watch your step, lest you fall and end up looking the fool.

What Tarot Card are You?
Take the Test to Find Out.

Fun Final Table Hand

PokerStars Game #21139393612: Tournament #113745930, $11+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (2000/4000) - 2008/10/12 15:38:53 ET
Table '113745930 8' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Mondogarage (55832 in chips)
Seat 5: follow_and18 (100980 in chips)
Seat 6: pedevejle (85352 in chips)
Seat 8: POLO93100 (27836 in chips)
Mondogarage: posts the ante 400
follow_and18: posts the ante 400
pedevejle: posts the ante 400
POLO93100: posts the ante 400
Mondogarage: posts small blind 2000
follow_and18: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mondogarage [3s Ah]
pedevejle: calls 4000
POLO93100: folds
Mondogarage: calls 2000 (call getting 5:1, can let go if need to)
follow_and18: checks
*** FLOP *** [5s 4c 2d] (GIN!)
Mondogarage: checks (check and wait for the c-bet)
follow_and18: checks
pedevejle: bets 8000 (right on schedule)
Mondogarage: calls 8000
follow_and18: folds
*** TURN *** [5s 4c 2d] [Js]
Mondogarage: bets 4000 (minimum bet to sell as attempt to steal)
pedevejle: raises 20000 to 24000 (just like clockwork)
Mondogarage: raises 19432 to 43432 and is all-in (come to papa)
pedevejle: calls 19432
*** RIVER *** [5s 4c 2d Js] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Mondogarage: shows [3s Ah] (a straight, Ace to Five)
pedevejle: shows [Kd Ks] (two pair, Kings and Jacks) (slowplay your chips away)
Mondogarage collected 116464 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 116464 | Rake 0
Board [5s 4c 2d Js Jh]
Seat 1: Mondogarage (small blind) showed [3s Ah] and won (116464) with a straight, Ace to Five
Seat 5: follow_and18 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: pedevejle showed [Kd Ks] and lost with two pair, Kings and Jacks
Seat 8: POLO93100 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Villian had been pretty much bullying the final table. Called pf with draws, and took it the rest of the way.

Unfortunately, I lost a 2:1 HU chip lead, and went out 2nd. A win would have been nice, but so far, I have to agree these 12/180s are very soft indeed, and I'm getting a bit more confirmation that the RNG is finally coming my way on JokerStars.

Unconfirmed (for now), Yet Perfect

Let me get this straight.

Sarah Palin scored an overall 841 on her SATs in 1982, when the average SAT scores for women in 1980, was 498 verbal and 483 math (overall = 981), and in 1984, the average was 498 verbal and 478 math (overall = 976).

I have no idea whether or not this image is real or not. If it is, this is gold.

No, clearly not all conservatives are dumb (nor would I allege otherwise), but your 2008 vice presidential candidate would, in fact, appear to be have been dumber than the average college-bound (or five-colleges-bound-including-a-couple-community-colleges) high school female senior. Furthermore, as a solid "C" student in Math, Social Studies, and Physical Sciences, we can see where she got her great background in economics, climate change, and foreign policy.

Okay, okay, so yes, this was a long time ago. Nobody is claiming you need to score 1600 on your SATs to be intellectually qualified to be president of the United States. You certainly don't have to be Stephen Hawking to hold high office. But really, shouldn't you at least be as smart as the average college-bound person? I mean, shouldn't the American populace want a president who is at least as intelligent (or even studious) as the average person, and not someone who appears to have been significantly below the average intelligence of a college-bound senior, with no other documented evidence later showing advancement beyond that stage.

Seriously, if her scores were much lower, she wouldn't even cross the threshold to play Division I athletics, and you know how much the NCAA has lowered those standards so that your top recruit football mook can suit up.

Why Is John McCain So Dishonest?

Sarah Palin likes to say that Barack Obama has to tell the "total truth" about whatever connection he may have with William Ayres.

In America, we all live under the same set of standards, right? Fair for the goose, fair for the gander?

Okay, then. John, why have you been so dishonest?

What does John McCain have to hide, and why is he being so dishonest about it?

"A review of the personal financial disclosure forms McCain filed after his election to the U.S. House in 1982 show that he did not list the group in the section of his 1982, 1983 and 1984 reports in which he was required to disclose all positions he held outside of government.

The instructions on the form require filers to report 'the identity of all positions held on or before the date of the filing during the current calendar year as an officer, director, trustee, partner, proprietor, representative, employee, or consultant of any corporation, firm, partnership, or other business enterprise, any nonprofit organization, any labor organization, or any educational or other institution.'" - Kenneth P. Vogel

Why is John McCain afraid to tell the "total truth" (thanks, Sarah!) about his involvement with the U.S. Council for World Freedom, sitting on their board while they funded death squads, and was connected to terror bombings in Italy?

Equally important is why John McCain filed false personal financial disclosure forms several times during the 1980s.

I think it's time for John McCain to tell the "total truth", because it appears he certainly wasn't do so, even in 1982.

To quote the McCain campaign, "how dishonorable".

When Did Ohio Join the Deep South?

Wow, this is pretty embarassing:



And before the inevitable comment from someone about how I think "All conservatives are dumb and all liberals are smart", I'll just say right out in front that this isn't about intelligence -- the people in this video are simply racist, pure and simple. Okay, a couple of them are completely fucking stupid beyond belief claming that because his last name is "Obama", he is a likely Muslim terrorist.

All apologies for my favorite Ohioan (you know who you are). I'm hoping you didn't have to grow up with the mooks in this video.

Honestly, I never knew having a white mother from Kansas was a required bloodline to be a terrorist...

There are a lot of very valid reasons why someone may choose to support the McCain/Palin ticket. After all, reasonable minds can certainly differ on the direction in which our nation's policies should lead. Frankly, I think voting to continue the policies of the last eight years would be a terrible mistake, but we do not live in a Communist one party state.

But really, to claim the Democratic candidate is a terrorist because of his name, or the color of his skin? Really?

If for no other reason, I would love to see an absolute Obama/Biden landslide next month solely to watch racist pigs like some of those depicted in this video go apoplectic at the thought that a nation could vote a black man who doesn't have an Anglo-Saxon surname be fairly elected to lead them.

Of course, it's easy for people to claim I'm "unhinged". Instead, why won't they answer the question about McCain's actual involvement with the board of an anti-Semitic organization (for several years) that directly funded and armed right wing terrorist death squads in Central America, and whose involvement took place during the very time of that organization's disgusting behavior?

Oh yeah, it's becuase it would require not only a complete reversal of their Ayres argument, but an admission that it's okay to pal around with terrorist supporters, just as long as they're Republican terrorist supporters.

I guess if your last name is of Scottish ancestry, by definition you're unable to have shady personal connections. Oh, the benefits of being a rich white multi-millionaire, I guess.

Got Dammit, So Close

Two Bodog MTT final tables, 6th in each.

And 21st in the Full Tilt 50/50....gaaaaaa....check-shoved KQs into AK on a K high board. I was 9th in chips at the time, too. I should have folded to his pre-flop 3-bet, so it's really on me. His preflop raise screamed either AK or something like JJ-KK, which means on that flop, I'm really only ahead of 1/2 his range. I could have folded and still had 80k chips with blinds at something like 2k/4k with ante. In other words, plenty of play left. But nooooo, I had to let hubris get in the way.

I really need to fix this particular late stage leak of mine, where I come into a playable (but less than premium) hand, raise it up, and decide I'm going to go to the mat with this hand, inspite of action suggesting that to be a Very Bad Idea, especially when folding to the re-raise will not leave me cripped. Much like Putin over the Bering Strait, this leak reared it's ugly head both during the 50/50, and during the Stars $200k the day before.

Nice paydays all around today, but $260 is nowhere near $9k.

Most disappointing part is, I was 3rd in chips when the money bubble broke, and I think as high as 2nd with as few as 30 or so players left.

Also ran fairly deep in the Stars $3R, but went dead at a crucial time. Cashed in a couple others, as well. As far as consistency, and running well, I honestly think I'm in the best stretch of my online poker career, so to speak. I haven't won a ton of mobnies yet, but I'm making it fairly deep fairly often these days.

Maybe my problem is, I'm not really getting deep enough often enough? Well, one of my losses at Bodog final tables was to a 2 outer, so I can't complain there. I think the real problem in the 50/50 was, about 10 hands previous to my, I stole with the Hammer and showed. After nearly five hours of a tight image, I ruined it with blogger ego.

The best part of the 50/50 was how many times I was 3- or 4- bet all in preflop while I held AA. Four freakin' times, and they held every time. Once, the dude who 4-bet me all in was holding something like Q6o. I know to expect more moves in a $50 buy-in, but more stupid moves? LOL

I can't wait until I'm either regularly rolled for that tourney, or until life allows me to actually play those $14+1 sats more often. This time, I was only home in time for the satellite because I had to leave work early to take care of some cable tv business.

Oh well, someday. At least I finally have sorta-playable rolls on all three sites now, as long as I don't try to play too big (I'd satellited into the fiddy). Even while coming up a bit short just about every time, I've managed to multiply by overall roll by a factor of five in the last ten days or so.

Hoy was still in the top 10 when I crashed -- good luck, Hoy! (EDIT: Hoy went out 9th, nice final table, sorry we didn't get to reach our HU for chop.)

Oh, and Obama pwned tonight.

Begala Was Right, and Clarification

It was just two days ago when Paul Begala said (on "This Week") that he'd learned some rather disturbing information with regard to John McCain's former alliances that he intentionally left out of his book. Well, as Sarah Errorcuda said, it's time to put the heels on and take the gloves off.

Hot off the presses is this article detailing McCain's ties to, and involvement with, the U.S. Council For World Freedom, and its parent organization, the World Anti-Communist League.

The Republican party likes to paint Obama with the brush of "guilt by association". Well, maybe they should do a couple of self-portraits while they're at it.

Some highlights from Pete Yost's article:

In the 1980s, McCain served on the advisory board to the U.S. chapter of an international group linked to ultra-right-wing death squads in Central America.
The U.S. Council for World Freedom aided rebels trying to overthrow the leftist government of Nicaragua. That landed the group in the middle of the Iran-Contra affair and in legal trouble with the Internal Revenue Service, which revoked the charitable organization's tax exemption."

"The council created by retired Army Maj. Gen. John Singlaub was the U.S. chapter of the World Anti-Communist League, an international organization linked to former Nazi collaborators and ultra-right-wing death squads in Central America. After setting up the U.S. council, Singlaub served as the international league's chairman."

McCain's tie to Singlaub's council is undergoing renewed scrutiny after his campaign criticized Obama for his link to Ayers, a former radical who engaged in violent acts 40 years ago. Over the weekend, Democratic operative Paul Begala said on ABC's "This Week" that this "guilt by association" tactic could backfire on the McCain campaign by renewing discussion of McCain's service on the board of the U.S. Council for World Freedom, "an ultraconservative right-wing group."

In two interviews with The Associated Press in August and September, Singlaub said McCain became associated with the organization in the early 1980s as McCain launched his political career. McCain was elected to the U.S. House in 1982.

The White House-directed network's covert arms shipments, financed in part by the Reagan administration's secret arms sales to Iran, exploded into the Iran-Contra affair in November 1986. The scandal proved to be the undoing of Singlaub's council.

The Latin American affiliate was kicked out of the league. At the time, Singlaub told the columnist the Latin American affiliate had "knowingly promoted pro-Nazi groups" and was "virulently anti-Semitic."

Wow, that's some pretty heavy stuff.

A clarification is in order, however. Based on what little was available a couple of days ago, I misattributed the McCain-Singlaub connection to the Iran half of Iran-Contra. So Singlaub wasn't selling arms to the Iranians. Instead, he was arming right wing death squads in Nicaragua. And John McCain sat on the board of the organization doing so. My bad.

Really, if smarmy elitist jerkoffs like Tucker Bounds want to play guilt by association, I'll cally our Ayres and raise you one Singlaub. I'm pretty certain that sitting on the board of an organziation neck deep in Iran-Contra during the 1980s is far more damning than sitting on a non-profit school improvement board with a guy whose criminal transgressions took place while you were in the 2nd or 3rd grade. Ayers never actually killed anyone -- how many Nicaraguan deaths did John McCain's U.S. Council for World Freedom directly fund?

Sometimes, You Just Gotta LOL, You Betcha

The new face of the GOP:




WTF is a "socialest" anyway? I suppose that can only mean they're more social than anyone else.

That is, unless you're black, or have beyond a 6th grade education.

I wonder if one of those mooks on that porch is the guy who shouted "sit down, boy!" at a black media cameraman at a Palin rally yesterday. Or maybe one of them is the jerk who shouted "Kill him!" in reference to a presidential candidate?

Really, all you can do is laugh. I mean, now I get it. Now I see why Obama supporters are called elitist. It's because an unhealthy percentage of McPalin supporters probably can't even spell their own names, much less the basest code word talking points of the campaign.

Okay, to be fair, they actually consider us "ehleetest".

Quick Tuesday Pimpage

Like Al Bundy, just a quickie...

Tuesday night is not just Debate Night in America -- it's time for poker bloggers everywhere to put their Skillz on display. Once again, cemfrommd is hosting the Skillz game over at Full Tilt Poker, and the flavor of the day is doublestack Limit Hold'em with KO bounties. I'm thinking I might swing by for this one.



Otherwise you can find me playing online poker in a few of my usual events tonight, or at least trying to follow up last Tuesday's win in the JokerStars $3.30 Triple Shootout, and maybe a couple of MTTs over at Bodog.

With the debate, the temptation to either not play at all, or limit myself to two tabling, is fairly strong. Live blogging tonight will be sil

As for the debate itself, I'm not expecting much in terms of either fireworks or of anything that will fundamentally change the polling trends. As strong as McCain is said to be in town hall styles, he's got nothing left but mud-slinging, and this particular debate is not the forum where that is likely to be successful. If he's going to pull out victory next month, it's not going to be because of anything that happens tonight. Still, it will be worth watching just to see what types of questions made the cut for Brokaw.

Popcorn's on hand, just to be ready if needed, but I need beer.

Tomorrow night? Total Sonic Annihilation, more to come.

New Non-Poker Site, and Congratulations In Order

First off, please let's all go over to Sprstoner's page and extend him congratulations for taking down the Full Tilt $150R $80,000 guarantee last night, for a whopping $58,425!!! With rebuys, the prize pool was a massive $233k, and Sprstoner just pwned that thing.

Awesome job. That has got to be the biggest blogger score ever (that is, if you don't include that handful of true full time pro players who happen to have blogs, such as Negranu and Shaniac....)

Anyway, I just wanted to point you guys, especially the foodie types, to a new blog written by an absolutely wonderful executive chef who does some sitting in at our local farmer's market. Deb describes herself as "A food enthusiast, private chef, culinary instructor, and a self professed 'food pusher' who owns 1012 cookbooks and counting....."

Her blog is called The Tasty Bits, and I can assure you from sampling, the recipes are fantastic. The Good Doctor Mondo (as chef extraordinaire) and I (as barely useful sous chef) have been working up Deb's recipes for ourselves for a few weeks now, and I can tell you that every single one of them is well worth trying. Seriously, who comes up with combining goat cheese with spaghetti squash? S'awesome.

Joe Lieberman, the Anti-Jew Jew

"Oh, there you go again, Joe"

Sarah Palin could just have well been talking about former Democrat Joe Lieberman, whose ability to contribute to the U.S. Senate will be called into question in a couple months, when he's kicked out of caucusing with the Dems, and has no committee seats at all.

First, he ties his power wagon to a presidential candidate who had ties to anti-Semitic organizations, going as far back as the early 1980s (Singlaub). Next, he campaigns with a woman who prefers not to leave sermons by preachers who espouse anti-Semitic sentiments.

Thanks to Joe Klein of Time Magazine for unearthing the truth:

"Leave aside the fact that The Embarracuda allowed herself to participate in a cermony that protected her from witchcraft, how about her presence--she didn't 'get up and leave'-- at a sermon by the founder of Jews for Jesus, who argued that the Palestinian terrorist acts against Israel were God's 'judgment' on the Jews because they hadn't accepted Jesus."

Man, I hope there's some YouTube of that awesomeness. (Oops, hey Sarah, you still want to talk about Reverend Wright? How's that mud feel now? Politics, south side Chicago style, yeah. Going up against Ted Stevens is Romper Room, you're in the big leagues, now.)

Goose, meet tha muthafuckin' gander. You may not have been a member of the Alaska Independence Party (AIP) personally (Toddy boy was), but you may wish you could secede yourself pretty soon.

And now, the champion of "fair and balanced" Sean Hannity, is relying on the most basest anti-Semites since the Nazis, to try to score cheap political points. As source material for an entirely illegitimate Fox "bio" on Obama, I'm not so sure you want to be supporting Andy Martin.

Who is Andy Martin? I think I'll let his own words describe his attitudes:

In a New York bankruptcy case, he referred to a judge as a "crooked, slimy Jew."

"I am able to understand how the Holocaust took place, and with every passing day feel less and less sorry that it did, when Jew survivors are operating as a wolf pack to steal my property."

When Martin was a political candidate, he claimed the purpose of his campaign was to "exterminate Jew power in America and impeach U.S. District Court of Appeals judges in New York City."

So, Joe, answer me this -- which would you rather denounce, 1) your abandonment of the Democratic party, 2) hitching your wagon to an erratic old man with poor judgment who consorts with anti-Semites, or 3) your Jewish faith. Or would you rather keep trying to piss on our heads and tell us its raining? You made your deal with the devil (um, I mean, McCain/Palin/Hannity), and he's coming to collect. Hope you enjoy your final four years in the Senate as a legislative eunuch.

I'll Call Your Ayers And Raise You One Singlaub

"And I think Governor Palin here is making a strategic mistake. This guilt by association path is going to be trouble ultimately for the McCain campaign. You know, you can go back, I have written a book about McCain, I had a dozen researchers go through him, I didn’t even put this in the book. But John McCain sat on the board of a very right-wing organization, it was the U.S. Council for World Freedom, it was chaired by a guy named John Singlaub, who wound up involved in the Iran contra scandal. It was an ultra conservative, right-wing group. The Anti-Defamation League, in 1981 when McCain was on the board, said this about this organization. It was affiliated with the World Anti-Communist League – the parent organization – which ADL said “has increasingly become a gathering place, a forum, a point of contact for extremists, racists and anti-Semites.”

Now, that's not John McCain, I don't think he is that. But you know, the problem is that a lot of people know John McCain’s record better than Governor Palin. And he does not want to play guilt by association or this thing could blow up in his face."

-Paul Begala on "This Week"


So you think that former Democrat Lieberman, soon to be a senator without a caucus, would be a little pissed to find out McCain's been partnering up with the anti-Semites and working with folks who would sell weapons to Iran who...you know, as you say, wants to wipe Israel off the map? Somehow, I don't think old Joe is too pleased about this.

Maybe the saddest part of this whole charade is seeing someone previously held up on such a pedestal as being clean, ethical, and with a conscience, as McCain has been, be revealed as nothing more than the same type of political hack that would lie down in the shallow trenches with the likes of Keating, Abramoff, and Rove. Truth is, McCain's only constituency has ever been McCain, in a vain attempt to not just live up to his dad and grandpa, but somehow go just one step beyond -- no matter what he has to do, or what lies he has to tell, or what principles he has to compromise, to get there.



Of course, who needs to point out McCain's own would-be terrorist associations, when the best argument against McCain's negative campaigning comes from...well...from McCain himself. I got yer straight talk right here.

Meanwhile, while his campaign would desperately prefer to to "turn the page" on the economy, the stock markets beg to differ. Methinks the economy wins that battle for the minds of voters this year.

Defining Nerves

Calling off 33k chips from an 88k stack in the JokerStars 200k guarantee, seeing your 88 is ahead of A9o, and then losing your net connection.

Fortunately, it wasn't down long, and I'd won the hand, and am currently 26th with about 1400 remaining from original 22k runners. Still, way to make a heart jump a beat.

3rd break in the $200k, and I'm sitting 213 of 751. Lost a nice pot just before break that would have put me in top 70. Had KQ in the big blind, and late position shoved about 34k in chips (big blind was 5k, and I had about 135k). Anyway, he had 88 and I lost the race. So I still have a bit above average chips, but my work's definitely cut out for me.

4th break in the $200k, and I'm still kicking. Just 3-bet shoved A4s from the button, and a mid-to-large stack folded. At break, I'm 122nd of 228 remaining, but a fair bit below average chips, and am in the bottom 3 stacks at table, with an M of about 6-7...sounds like Go Time.

In a major case of deja vu, one orbit into break, I 3-bet shoved A4s from the button, and the same mid-to-large stack folded. Weird.

So while I'm playing the $200k, I'd decided to play the Full Tilt Early Daily Doubles, of the $5+1 variety. Anyway, I got sucked out on to go out of ED A, but just NOW went out two spots before final table in DD B. I'd called a pf raise with J9 diamonds, and hit a diamond in the 9 high flop. I checked to the aggro player who was raising everything, and checkraised all in. She had AQo. Caught a 4th club on the turn, but the oh so nasty A on the river sent me out 2 before final table. So, I've still never made a Daily Double final table, but my 11th place beats my previous best by 1.

Oh yeah, almost forgot, we're on the 5th break in the $200k, and I'm sitting 12th of 47. One key hand, UTG shoved a 60k stack (blinds were like 25k/50k, and I tripled the blind with AQs. Small blind overshoves, and I go to the time clock. I talk myself into him having a small pair, and eff it, I need chips, with an M of 4, so I call. The small blind had KK, but I hit the miraculous A on the river, for a rare suckout of my own. But yeah, I've got chips and a chair, so we'll see.

Wellllll, crap, went out 28th of 22141 runners, when I couldn't win a race. To set up the story, the hand before, I'm in mid position with about 1.9m chips, and look down to find 99. Guy two to my right, who is tourney chipleader with 6.1m, raises 3x the big blind to 450k. I was seriously considering shoving, because I thought I had enough fold equity, and had been playing tight (saw 12% of flops for the tourney). The Good Doctor Mondo, who is sitting next to me, says something like "you can't be thinking of going all in with 99". I let a ton of my timer count down, and fold, without sacking up.

Of course, she hasn't played poker in a year, and has never played really outside of bar poker. And I realize now she doesn't have a real concept of aggressive late stage play when real money is on the line.

So the next hand, I have AQo, and the same player raises to 450k. I again let the timer start, and say fuck it, I need the chips, I'm 16th of 28, and haven't played a hand since I doubled up a shorty when his AA held against my AK (my button versus his small blind, of course).

Well, he eventually calls, and his 88 holds, I don't improve, and I'm out 28th.

I followed him to the next table, and it was difficult, since he didn't seem English, but it appears that on the hand I folded 99, he folded either 88 (for 88 twice in a row), or AA. LOL. I think I should have played the 99.

Anyway, I can't complain about the payday, I'm starting to get a semi-real roll again, and the most I've ever had on JokerStars (at least enough to comfortably play $16 buyins for a while...), but dammit, I'm kicking myself...not for losing, but for not trusting my instincts, which got me past over 22100 runners. I don't know that I'll ever get so close to a HUGE payday again for a long while, and if I felt like I had fold equity and a read, I probably should have gone with it.

Nevertheless, I have to be pleased with this past week of online poker. One MTT win, one near final table in a 1200 runner event, and coming up a race short of a possible 4- or 5- figure cash. Going out for Dairy Queen afterwards, with the Good Doctor tasted so much better.

Back to Normal

So much for eliminated my JokerStars curse. Three outed on three separate rivers to drop out of three different tournaments. Guess I'll have to go back to $3 buyins. I suspect that by blogging about my win, someone in JokerFucker Lack of Customer Support finally realized I'd hit something, and changed the batteries in the doomswitch.

Speaking of lack of customer support, where the fuck is my withdrawal from Bodog after all these weeks?

Gosh Golly Joe, That's A Goot One!

Credit where credit's due -- Sarah Palin performed admirably on Thursday given the ridiculously low setting of the bar. I couldn't limbo under that bar, but even my 42-year-old bad knees ass could jump over it.

Still, the popcorn went to waste; there was no trainwreck on either side. Joe Biden's main task was not to be seen as bullying Palin, and to take on McCain instead. To that end, mission accomplished. Palin's task was to stop the heavy bleeding inflicted by big bad Katie Couric, and come across as someone who could at least form a couple of coherent sentences in a row. Again, to that end, mission accomplished.

Now, I think I can confidently predict that you've pretty much heard the last of Palin until the election. Now, she can go to her strengths of charming the private fundraisers (such as the one in Denver yesterday), and certainly a fair number of canned teleprompter-fed stump speeches. But she seems to have been able to either shed the tag of abject trainwreck (or at least cross through the bar code), and would seem to no longer be the top story.

The Good Doctor Mondo and I saw Religulous on opening night last night. Pretty fuckin' blasphemous to just about every one of the world's largest faiths, and pretty fuckin' funny, to boot.



The greatest documentary ever? Hardly, especially in a screening room where they didn't have the sound properly surrounded, and brought up the lights part way with ten minutes left. And towards the last few minutes, Bill Maher because less observational and more preachy, if you will (how ironic) that people should not be religious. Well, I'm not, so that's no big deal, but I think he risks losing a lot of points he may have earned during the first hour. Still, this was more entertaining than any of Michael Moore's works, from where I sit.

However, from the pre-Religulous previews, I'm really jazzed to go see Milk in a few weeks. Fantastic cast, and the preview looks extremely promising. I'd say awards-worthy season has just about started. But seriously, wtf is up with Josh Brolin again having two big roles in award-worthy flicks in back-to-back years? Did anyone really see that coming?



The Good Doctor Mondo's studying for her licensure exam this weekend, so if I'm really really lucky and a good lil' Mondo, I may just be able to get some online poker in the books.

HPT Main Event is going on, but yeah, I never did get up to one of the qualifiers. Time to man up next time.

Paging Dr. Orville Reddenbacher

We need you on the snack shelf, stat.

Tonight's the night,
Everything's all right
(apologies to Rod Stewart)

It's on, and by gawd, it better be entertaining.



Relax. I got this.

I'll say this much - if Palin's wearing her hair down tonight (by all accounts, a seemingly rare occurence), I hope Gwen Ifill asks her why she's wearing a wire in her ear.

Seriously, can there be a more compliant, yet less talented, marionette than Sarah "Putin's Rearin' His Head" Palin? When Joe Public (as opposed to VP candidate "Joe Six Pack") asks a question at a sandwich shop, that's "gotcha journalism", but when asked what should be an utter softball question by a generally softie journalist, you can't name ONE Supreme Court decision you disagree with, despite your oft-spouting of standard right wing talking point rhetoric "activist liberal judges"? You can't cite one example of such a decision? Not one? You can't cite a decision that only three months before cost YOUR state hundreds of millions of dollars? I mean hell, you read ALL the newspapers, right? You'd think at least one might mention a Supreme Court opinion you disagree with, no?

Seriously, Palin's made Dubya and Dan Quayle look like beatified geniuses in comparison. I'm convinced that the only plan in the Republican Party's platform is the dumbing down of America staring from the top down, where the plan is to put forth the absolute middle of the bell curve as your best.

But I digress; tonight should be a lot of fun, and Dr. Reddenbacher better be working overtime, because this one calls for lots of snacks. Trainwrecks make a mondo hungry.

In the end, I doubt the debate this evening will do much to shape the race at all, in either direction. For one thing, it's #2 vs #2, and who. does. number 2. work. for? More to the point, Palin has performed so poorly in virtually every instance of public speech during this campaign that was not a straight teleprompter read, that enough voters have now concluded she is completely and utterly unqualified for national office, that she's not going to suddenly reverse everyone's opinion solely on the basis of a single performance of relative competence. She needs to pretty much hit a home run, and simply avoiding fouling the ball off your own face isn't a round-tripper.

Honestly, I don't think Palin could even win re-election as Governor in the state just off Putin's front porch right now. But please, just be entertaining for one night, and don't make Orville's overtime work go to waste.

Finally Broke the JokerStars Jinx

For years and years, I've done nothing but suck major hind tit at JokerStars, my least favorite poker site. In fact, for the last couple of years, I've subsisted there pretty much solely on an occasional sponsor transfer into my JokerStars account, which I manage to stretch out for three months before I donk it all off, just in time for another sponsor to step up.

I've never really took it as "mondogarage sucks at poker" (even if I probably do), because I've had my share of success at Bodog, and even at FTP, I've managed to cash about 6x as often, even playing more high variance Omaha tourneys, and am lifetime ahead there.

Until tonight, the best I'd ever done is a 57th in the Sunday $10+1 $100k guarantee (shows how long ago that was, at least over a year), and I think I took down a $4/180 once, and I did once take either 2nd or 3rd in a HORSE MTT for some sorta decent holla dollas.

Well, tonight that finally changed, when I managed to take down a $3 Turbo Triple Shootout, besting something like 728 other players to score my first real BOOOM on that sickest of all sites.

The one odd part of the tourney was that each of my first two shootout tables was just about the very last one to finish of its round. In each case, I played slowly and patiently (for a turbo), managing to steal just enough to stay in the top 3 until I could get a hand big enough to take someone out with. Also in each case, the heads up felt a lot shorter than the final three, but still took a good 13-14 hands.

Anyway, the chips were obviously even going into the final table, being a shoot out. The final table was pretty tough -- I don't think there was an elimination for the first 20 or so hands, which strikes me a lot at what was at the end a 1-table turbo SNG.

Another round of patience and chipping up helped me get to heads up with my 2nd massive HU chiplead of the tournament:



Fortunately, heads up didn't last too long in this case, when my opponent (who'd played pretty strong for the most part) open shoved from the button when I was holding KK:



And that was that.



Does that fully restore my faith in JokerStars, or did many years of variance finally catch up to me in my favor...um....ONE TIME. You be the judge.



Still, not only did a victory here feel GOOD (and was my 2nd MTT takedown overall in September), the payout actually added about 450% to what my mini-me JokerStars roll was. Gosh, I don't think I've ever had a roll on JokerStars that even matches the payout of this tourney. I'll try not to donk it all in one place.

I'm still not going to run up for HPT, since the $340 qualifiers are starting to wind down, and frankly, I don't see how I can find the time to get up to Blackhawk this week...such is life.

Good luck, all!

12 Angry Men

Seriously, did 12 Republican members of the House of Representatives actually change their mind and vote no on the boondoggle bailout today because Nancy Pelosi hurt their feelings? Really? Really?

Wow. I never thought it would be possible for twelve grown men, likely millionaires all, and some of the most powerful men in the country, to be so small and petty as to vote a certain way on one of the most significant pieces of legislation in our nation's history on being sensitive. Just when, exactly, did Daniel from Season 5 of Project Runway become a member of Congress, exactly?

There are certainly a lot of arguments to be made on behalf of the bailout, and at least as many to be made on behalf of no bailout whatsoever. For myself, I'm increasingly growing of the mind that Congress should stay out of this entirey (but if it does go for a bailout, it is a must that it include the ability for bankruptcy judges to modify the payment terms of defaulted mortgages).

However, I can think of nothing more shameful than deciding to vote a certain way because you think it's best for the country, and then changing your mind because someone made your butt hurt by a couple of lines in a floor speech. Seriously, if that represents the size of your stones, just drop your re-election campaign now, because you twelve are a bunch of abject pussies who don't even have the guts to cast a vote you believe in. I truly feel sorry for your constituents, knowing that you've spent your careers on the Hill voting not your conscience or your brain, but on whether or not someone ate the last Thin Mint on the box.

Oh poor poor pitiful me, that big bad old Pelosi bruised my ego. I'm gonna take my ball(s) and go home.

You think that's harsh, just wait until Barney Frank visits you to talk uncharacteristically nice.

Hey Johnny Mac, you still want to take credit for the bailout bill?

The Republicans no longer get to talk about the "angry left", but here, have a tissue and go have a good cry now that Nancy Pelosi hurt your poor feelings.

No poker the last couple of days, so no poker content.

Unexpected Awesomeness

Wow.

Even the National Review is begging Sarah Palin to drop out of the VP race.

Just weeks ago, every right wing pundit and talking head was proclaiming the entire Democratic party as quaking in their collective boots, at how this gun' totin' hockey mama from the Yukon was going to blow up the political landscape, and sweep John "I Don't Know Economics, but Let's Not Debate About It" McCain all the way up Pennsylvania Avenue.

Then she opened her mouth. Then, she opened it again. Then, she couldn't even handle a ten minute sitdown with Katie Couric. No knock on Couric, but she's no Mike Wallace or Chris Matthews.

The National Review really said it best -- Sarah Palin is "Clearly Out Of Her League".

Forget Putin "rearing his head and invading our airspace", Palin should really just lower hers and quit invading our airwaves. Or better yet, please stick around. Because as long as you do, not even Joe Biden could hurt the Democratic ticket.

What's the difference between Sarah Palin and Mr. Irrelevant? Lipstick.

As for tonight's debate, we may just see a bit of this:



Speaking of Bash(ing), I know a ton of you bloggers are hanging with Al (who says AlCan'tHang anyway?) this weekend -- have fun, I wish I could be there, but Pennsyltucky is a long way from my lil' battleground state. Be safe and rock hard.

Wafflesday

Man, you have no idea how much I'd like to be able to play in the Mookie tonight...

I pretty much don't care whether or not the world's most break even player wins his prop bet with LJ tonight...it will be worth playing just for the table chatter.

If the Mookie can get 80 runners, Waffles will drop an additional $109 to the winner, which is pretty awesome, pretty manly, and significatly less than break even for him. Good luck, Waffles.

Alas...twice-already-rescheduled band rehearsal's got me by the short and curlies tonight, especially since my recent bad cold caused one of the postponements already...

Oh Let There Be Another Donkey

Thanks to the fine folks over at Poker Bonus Codes, even in this age of having page ranks deGoogled beyond recognition and belief, I've got a few sheckels in my Poker Stars account again. (and yeah, it's already back to below three figures, thanks to people who like to get their money in as 6:1 dogs...)

Anyway, come get some while the getting's good, because it's not likely to last long. After all, it is JokerStars we're talking about here, where the best way to take my money is also the most common...just be one of these:



Equus asinus

Hee fuckin' Haw, Roy Clark, are you spinning in your geeeetar case yet?

Bodog Poker Open

Yeah......it's on.

Sorta.

Thanks to my win last night, in a 143 player turbo MTT, I may actually try to play an event or two of this. However, I'm still not rolled to go after any of the juicier events, so tourneys such as the Kickoff Event and Main Event, both of which are on Sundays, are definitely out. Besides, I essentially don't play online poker on the weekends (except for very rare occasions when the Good Doctor Mondo is out of town).

Of course, I typically only play Tuesdays now, which leaves the $20+2 Pot Limit HE event my most viable option.

On the other hand, I've final tabled two Bodog turbo MTTs in my last three attempts (with one win), so Monday's $30+3 Turbo Bounty Tourney ($15k guaranteed) may be a better call. Both have double starting stacks.

The event I'd probably most like to play, that is actually within my roll is next Friday's $25+2.50 $10k gurantee, also with a double starting stack. But that seems unlikely, given there's bound to be a band that will take precendence.

Anyway, as I'm definitely not rolled for the biggest events, I send my support over to these guys, I'd dig seeing one of you take down the Main Event.

(Not to shortchange any other bloggers, but I don't know anyone else playing these events...)

Skippin' the Heartland, and Pulsating MTT Action

Well, good luck to everyone going up to Blackhawk for the Heartland Poker Tour. I decided tonight not to go, as my temperment is currently unable or unwilling to deal with the most atrocious donkey beats imaginable.

The online poker world has been, with one notable exception, kicking me in the junk beyond belief this week.

I swear, if someone calls my reshove (holding AK sooooted) with J8 off and hits, two from the money in a $5k...or calls my 4 bet shove (with QQ on button) with A9 and hits A on the river, for a stack big enough to take me to $$$ in a $40k guarantee...or runner runner flushes me three spots from the money in a 500 player tournament....

Anyway, I'm embarrassed at how loudly I was swearing in my living room last night...loud enough for the Good Doctor Mondo to hear as she pulled up to the garage last night.

If that happened to me up at the Golden Gates during the HPT, I think I'd be as likely to literally throw a fist at someone, instead of just slapping my fist on a barstool or pillow. I am simply not presently in a mental state to take the horrible beat by a horrible player three spots before the $340 qualifier bubble. A race is a race. And I can totally deal with running QQ into AA, or say, having KK outflop AA, or even having AQs catch an AK, etc. You know what I'm talking about, the kind of battles for stacks where, whether or not the play was optimal, it was at least understandable or justifiable...where your stack is truly short enough that it's +EV to shove any two broadway cards from the cutoff in an unopened pot, or restealing from a button who you've seen to be raising light and showing down trash, etc.

But those incomprehensible plays by terrible players, who these days are invariably hitting their river miracles on me...I just don't think I can deal with that in a high buy-in live event right now, because the online poker world has just been truly abusive of me of late. It's so bad, I'm correctly predicting the river that beats me just about every time now. "Here comes the case K.............and there it is."

I did mention above about one notable exception, and here it is:



BOOOOM!, I actually took one down, the Bodog $10+1 NHLE Turbo, that runs at something like 9pm in my time zone. There were around 143 runners this time around, and for once, I didn't take any atrociously horrible beats. I mean, I did lose a couple of pots where I was heavily ahead when the chips went it, but in each case, they plays were completely reasonable under the circumstances, and I never felt hosed.

This almost didn't happen. After chipping up big early, and coming into the final three tables either 2nd or 3rd in chips, by the time we got to the final table bubble, I was just about on the morphine drip. However, I was able to last, and got in a strong position when I called all ins by two short stacks at the final table and my AQs held (I belive the all ins were A7 and A4s). This put me in 2nd of the final five, and I was on my way. Heads up looked like this:



Heads up went somewhere between 18-20 hands or so, with a bit of back and forth. At one point, we were nearly even in chips, but there was essentially no button limping on either side, and pots were taken preflop or on the flop, until this hand:



I believe I raised pot preflop, and he smooth called. What is he shoving that flop with? At this point, I don't care, I'm not folding bottom two pair with backdoor possibilities here.




Well, guess some of my backdoor options are knackered, but I'm ahead (less comfortably than I thought), and may have made the same shove myself. Frankly, I think check-shoving the flop is as good a play as shoving. Is it better or worse, what do you think? If villian put me on a random A or K, or small pocket pair (given preflop action), he probably thinks he induces a fold here. Anyway, I think his play was fine.



And it actually held up. Wow.

Once again, the final payout was pretty small. It's always the 400+ runner and more MTTs where I get truly hosed. So maybe the ticket for me is to stick with 150-180 player tournaments, no matter the buy-in? Does that make any sense. This was my 5th MTT victory at Bodog this year, but none had more than 220 runners, and two had less than 100. I suppose that's variance, or maybe the 15-20 table starting range is just a sweet spot of sorts for me. I haven't figured that out just yet.

At any rate, I've been able to work my Bodog roll just about up to what it was before my recent withdrawal, so I'll take it.

Return to the Heartland

If you haven't already read, the Heartland Poker Tour is back in Blackhawk, once again at the Golden Gates, home of the nicest poker room in Colorado. This will be HPT's third stop in Colorado, and they've finally named the event the Mile High Poker Open. Of course, being Colorado, home of restrictive casino limits, there is no direct buy-in to the main event which starts on Friday, October 3rd. Instead, you have to qualify for the main event by way of $340 qualifiers, which are really supersats. One in five players in each qualifier gets in to the main event, which makes the main event equate to a $1700 buy-in.

The first of sixteen $340 satellite events is this coming Saturday, October 20th. There are also $80 and $110 single table sit-and-go's where players can win seats into a $340 qualifier. The satellite events have nice structures, but the SNGs are truly donkeyshovefests, with 1500 in starting chips and blinds that increase every ten minutes. I swear they play almost just about like playing the chippies on Full Tilt. There is a rumor that if you win five satellites, you are entered into the main event, but a) I have not confirmed this, and b) this would seem to run counter to Colorado gaming law, especially as the SNGs pay out in cash, not qualifier tickets.

I have yet to decide whether or not I'm going to try to take part. Work schedule requirements dictated that I miss the last two events, and that does not look to be a factor for me this time. However, until last night, I've been running extremely poorly, for the most part. I started writing this post before yesterday's play. I'm hoping to go through another week and see how things hold up. I can afford the $340 to take the shot, but if I'm running like ass, I just don't see the point. But I feel confident enough after my play last night to give it a go -- I just want to see if I can back it up with more solid play first. We'll see...

Tuesday Night Live Blogging

8:02pm - So far so good, mostly. I'm still alive in all the tourneys I fired up. I did add a $5.50 PL O8, which I'm barely alive in. But in the Daily Doubles, at first break, I'm sitting 87th of 658 in DD A, and 101st of 596 in DD B. Very few showdowns, a few steals, and both times I hit AA, I was able to checkraise all in on non-scary flops or turns, to knock out others.

8:08pm - Just doubled up KK v 66 in the Bodog $10+1 $5k, when I really needed it. Got a bit above average chips. Was pretty much unplayable first hour, and just sat tight.

8:11pm - Tripled up in the Omatard, but still 45th of 55, 27 pay, 219 runners started, so I've got my work cut out for me.

8:14pm - More than doubled up again, versus table large stack...20 of 52 in Omatard, and almost at average chips; can be much more selective.

8:29pm - Huge hand in DD A gets me to 6th of 519. In BB with AA, late position minraised, button called, I 3 bet to 1100, with one call. Flop is Q high, all diamonds (I have A of Diamonds). I was trying to decide what to do, when aggro player on my right shoves (he had KT with one diamond, I think. AA held (no flush), and off we go.

8:39pm - Well, phoo. Out of DD B, when I shoved QQ into AA. I should have known better, as I'd made standard raise pf, villain min-raised, and he checked the 667 flop. I should really have checked behind. So no double cash bonus for me, once again. However, I'm sitting 9th of 434 in DD A, and still alive in all my other events, including the Omatard game.

8:54pm - 2nd break in the Omatard game, and we're on the exact money bubble. 27 pay, 28 left. Sitting in 21st, so if I can be disciplined, maybe I can make a run. 26th of 336 in DD A, but the two players on my immediate right are in the top 10. Lots of chips at this table = lots of opportunity, and I have position. Still, I can't get stupid here.

9:11pm - 2nd break in DD A, and I've had to fold for the last 15 minutes, except for one steal. Still, 49th of 253, with 150% of average chips, but only 3rd in chips at my table. Money broke in Omatard, and still kicking. Also still kicking in the Bodog $5k and $5 rebuys, but not in the moolah just yet.

9:42pm - DD A bubble broke, as did the $5k. Unfortunately, I've worked my way backwards in both, and need to double up if I want to have a chance for a deep run.

9:59pm - In the very same minute, just went out of both Omatard (14th), and the DD A, somewhere like 120th. The funny part is I had AA on the button in DD A, but less than 3 BB. I had the worst cards ever for about 40 straight hands. BB *had* to call preflop with something like Q8o (less than 1/2 BB for him to call), and he naturally caught his gutter on the river. Still kicking deep in Bodog $5k (29 left, above average), and the $5R (about 20 spots from money).

10:18pm - Nice. In the Bodog $5k, I called a raise and a smaller all-in preflop with KQs. Button overshoves, and original raiser folds. I think if original EP raiser calls here, I fold. However, EP folds, so I call. My KQs is up against JJ, and JJ. Yup, JJOK. K on the flop, and everyone's drawing dead. Down to final two tables, and while I'm now below average chips, it's skewed by one massive stack on other table. I like my chances at this point.

10:25pm - Ugh. Just got AA cracked for the first time, in the $5R. Folds to me in the small blind, so I min-raise and get a call. Flop is Q high. I check, he min bets, I bet about 2/3 pot. Of course, he shoves, I call, and he flips KQ for 2nd pair, 2nd kicker (donkey). Well, Q hits the river, and I'm below average, and still not quite in the money. I would have been top 5 if my AA hold. But I've had AA 6-7 times tonight all told, and this is the first time they were cracked, so no whining.

10:51pm - Okay, now I whine. Bodog $5k, five seats from final table. I pick up QQ under the gun, and raise pot, for 40% of my chips, hoping to get a 3-bet, or shoving any flop. Get one caller. Obviously, an AAK flop, and I check fold. Two hands later, I pick up KK, and player to my right shoves. Obviously, I call and am facing AQ, A on flop kills me. fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuck. Instead of a shot at $1500, I score a whole $45.00. So fuckin' awesome. As I type this, we're on the very bubble in the $5R. Funnily enough, I can end up cashing in 4 out of 5 events tonight, and barely pick up any ground on my bankroll.

11:11pm - Three tables left in the $5R, and I just saw a dude flop a royal...and get paid. I'm on the drip, trying to at least pick up two spots to the next pay tier, but after getting three outed, my M is about 4.5.

11:18pm - Wow, more than doubled up on two consecutive hands. Caught a miracle A on the river for my AQ to beat JJ (for my only suckout all night, believe it or not...except for Omatard 8, which is and was suckout central), and the next hand, KK held up against AJs. Who knows how this song ends, but I now have a final table stack in the $5R. Hoping to catch a repeat, this is like one of the only MTTs I've won online, and I've actually won it twice, if my recollection is correct. LOTS of work left to do.

11:28pm - AJs beat KJo, funny part being after my big pot bet, he's got 4k left, I bet 3k on turn, and 3k on river (there was already about 130k in pot after flop). I didn't need the flush, but I'll take it. Twelve left, mondo 2nd in chips.

11:44pm - WOOT, FINAL TABLE, coming in 4th in chips, let's see what happens! Almost made three final tables, but I'll take what I can get, and try to rebuild the Bodog roll.

Midnight - Aaaaaand, out in 5th. I raised A9o under the gun, and was 3 bet. I should have either folded or shoved pf, because my pot bet was over 1/3 of my stack. Ran into JJ, and the A on the flop didn't help me when a J followed for his flopped set. So no victory, but I would have been pissed to get so close to so many final tables without making any, so I'm pretty happy. Not to mention, my restarted Bodog roll (post withdrawal) ended up doubling tonight. As long as I keep my buyins small going forward, I should be good for the year.

Good luck all, I'm beat.

Poker Goals For the Week

As others have observed, the online poker blogosphere's been pretty bereft of real strategy posts these days.

As I've never been a strong contributor in that area, I don't suppose I'm going to start now. I suppose part of this is that I don't use PokerTracker (as I virtually never play cash tables, and am such a small baller), and I've gotten bad about copying/pasting hand histories into a .txt file to upload to a site later. I'll try to get a bit better, at least insofar as occasionally saving a hand that's more interesting from a decision-making perspective, than it is just another exemplar for a brag/beat post.

However, I do resolve to try to do a better job of not pushing marginal edges in marginal spots, particularly early in tournaments. Why 4-bet your AK out of position when you're sitting on 50 big blinds? Why put your tournament life at stake with presto, against a tight player, when you're sitting on 80 big blinds? (Even this guy probably folds that hand once in a while...)

Oh, and keep myself to four tables or less. I suppose that means the FTP Daily Doubles, the Bodog $10+1 5k, and the Bodog $5R, and then see what happens in those. Of course, this means no Skillz game unless I'm out of one of the first three tournaments first. But it's Stud, anyway, so I'll just be avoiding an epic fail if I sit this one out. I figure, I've actually come pretty dadgum close to a final table in a Daily Double two of the last three Tuesdays I played them (with 23rd and 18th place finishes out of 1000+ fields). Maybe if I minimize my number of games, I can actually take that next step.

A little birdie is whispering in my ear that our beloved Bodonkey may actually return. Of course, when I say "little birdie", I really mean "gambooooling degen", but I kid because we care. And because we can. Anyway, I say bully to that idea, time to keep those Tuesday nights open!

How Can You Not Find This Funny?

Okay, maybe it's not Tiny Fey-as-Sarah Palin funny, but then, Tina Fey is a trained professional.

Well, I Did Promise A Poker Post

Believe it or not, things have actually gotten a bit better for me over at Bodog these days. Last week, I even managed to final table a $10 turbo MTT. Of course, Bodog being what it's been to me, after coming in to the final table 2nd or 3rd in chips, I go out 5th when I see nothing at the final table better than J8o. Still, I can't truly complain (and I'm not), when after nearly a full month of non-cashes, I've managed to hit two Bodog final tables in my last three playing sessions. Of course, since I previously cashed out most of my Bodog roll, I'm playing much smaller these days, and will have to get a couple of top threes before thinking of starting to move back up. Fourth and fifth place finishes don't really accomplish that, when winning pays at least five times fifth place.

Came pretty close to a really deep Daily Double run, again. Made final 2-3 tables of Daily Double B. Of course, I stank up DD A when I re-shoved, only to see my AKo v AKs v QQ. K on the flop was okay, but getting flushed by the turn by the AKs kinda sucked. I'd raised PF from early position, he instashoved, and was called by a smaller stack. I thought pretty hard about folding, but just couldn't find any button but the shiny one that said "Donk Off All Chips With Obvious 3rd Best Hand".

Absolutely no WCOOP for me, as I think I've got about $25 sitting at Stars, that I'd rather use towards a few $4/180s, in the hopes of taking one down to start a roll there again.

I may try live blogging my online poker tomorrow, as it's been a while. Will definitely check into the Skillz game. I need to atone after showing absolutely zero skillz in my play last week. Of course, as we're playing Double Stack Limit 7-Card Stud Hi/Lo, I'm expecting to see 5th street 90% of the time, zoom up early, and not make first break.

Feeling Monolithic

I Spent the entire weekend at Red Rocks, for the 2008 edition of the Monolith Festival, and boy are arms tired (rimshot!).

It's not often when you can see top flite bands as varied as TV on the Radio, DeVotchKa, Atmosphere, Vampire Weekend, Sharon Jones and the Dap Kings, and Band of Horses, all in one weekend, in such a visually striking environment. Frankly, I'm more drawn to some of the smaller up and coming bands, and the real highlights for me this past weekend were:

The Muslims - A sorta pop-garage rock combo out of San Diego, who specialize in crisp rockers, and who pulled a most unlikely Spaceman 3 cover outta their ass. Now if I could just actually get my hands on their CD, which may have only been a bonus to their vinyl LP which is not nationally distributed (as far as I know).

A Place to Bury Strangers - What can I say about this band? They were an absolute total unadulterated sonic assault of epic proportions. I really didn't know a guitar could keep feeding back for four minutes --- without even any strings left on it. They're on tour and playing a small club show at Denver's Larimer Lounge next month. I, for one, can't wait.

The Night Marchers - Balls out driving rock and roll, and with hygeine and a pedigree to boot. Pretty much legendary dudes from pretty much legendary bands (Rocket From the Crypt, Hot Snakes, Delta 72, etc.)

Dressy Bessy - Denver's own rock and roll sweethearts. They've got a new album coming out tomorrow, and have grown to a five piece, but most of their show features favorites from their last couple of records. Anyway, these guys can do no wrong in my book, and getting to see them play on the main stage was a joyous occasion. They're on tour for the next couple of months, and for all you NYC poker bloggers, they're at Arlene's Grocery on Thursday, September 25th. (Much better than donking Riverchasers, right?)

Port O'Brien - I have to admit, I'd never even heard of this band prior to this past weekend, much less heard their music. Still, this band left the audience awash in such joyous feelings with their delightful songs. They actually reminded me just a bit of Danielson, but much more in spirit than in sound.

Snowden - Probably some of the sickest bass playing I've seen in ages. I guess folks call them post-punk, which I suppose I can agree with. They actually remind me a bit more of Mission of Burma; their record strikes me as much more danceable. At any rate, their live set was more angst-fueled, and just huge.

Moonspeed - When all is said and done, I think the band that blew me away more than any other this weekend, is in fact one of Denver's own, and a band I'd never been fortunate enough to see previous to this. Moonspeed is a virtual Denver indie all star collective, made up of players from bands past and present such as Bright Channel, Monofog, and Moccasin. As I understand it, Moonspeed was until recently pretty much a songwriting outlet for Jeff Suthers, and had really pretty much not played out, or had even taken on any kind of fixed form. That seems to be changing, as Monolith was at least their 2nd or 3rd show in the past couple of months. There's a CD in the works, and I really hope everyone takes the opportunity to listen to their lush and layered psychedelia. Not many can pull off a 10-piece, with multiple drummers and even melodica, and not have it come off as little more than a jumbled mess. Moonspeed seems to be one of the very few who can, as every ingredient seems to have found its obvious place. I would suggest them for those who are fans of old school shoegaze and west coast psych pop in equal measure.

There were certainly other acts I enjoyed. Unfortunately, the expected horrendous Broncos home game traffic on Sunday led me to take a different path to Red Rocks, and I ran into even more horrendous lane closures in Arvada, and ran horribly with regard to traffic lights. Thus, I missed all but the final song of The Rosewood Thieves, and that of Pomegranates (they played at the same time on two different stages), these were two of the bands I was most looking forward to checking out.

The above notwithstanding, there's a worrisome aspect of Monolith that bears mentioning. First off, the brief negative. Judging from attendance, and from a short conversation with one of the curators, I suspect and fear there may not be a 2009 Monolith Festival, which would be most unfortunate. Never before have so many of the more interesting bands on the indie scene gathered at such a uniquely beautiful place to hold a festival as this. (Trust me, the webcam shot looks far more dramatic during a show.) I would dearly hate for this to end, as the event truly enriches the Colorado music community. Seriously, how much does adding a fourth Dave Matthews Band show to the schedule actually add to anything but the seriously deep-pocketed AEGLive's coffers, whereas an event such as Monolith helps to put Denver on the national music map.

The problem is, once you add up the cost of that many bands on the top indie tiers, you've pretty much spent about as much as you would hiring a band like Foo Fighters for a night, if not more. And that means you need to sell out the bowl, and thus far, that ain't happening. The biggest crowd I saw was this weekend was for TV on the Radio, and even so, I don't think there were more than about 5,200 people or so. Still, I'd like to see Monolith given another couple of years to build the critical mass it needs to thrive, because the event, by its very existence, simply contributes so much to the growing culture of music. I really hope the current corporate sponsors (Esurance, Dell, Southwest Airlines, Qdoba Mexican Grill, New Belgium Brewery, and several smaller entities) are willing to stay on, and that the promoters can bring in a perhaps a couple more in the future.

I recognize how much tougher it can be to bring in dollars in a declining economy, but as long as there is some perceived value in subsidizing events at all, Monolith is an event worth being a part of.

Okay, I've rambled long enough -- I promise my next post will actually include some poker.

The World According to MiamiDon

"The leaders of the Republican party have always been smarter and way more organized that the other party and it's starting to show again."

I guess that explains these:



(Clearly has not seen "Top Gun" just yet)




(This would be using Walter Reed Middle School as a backdrop instead of the intended Walter Reed Army Medical Center)

I dunno, it seems to me that for the alleged "angry left", liberals are continuing to show a greater sense of humor.

I think the real difference is that I can accept being wrong (and have certainly been wrong on more than a few occasions), while the extreme right can't really accept anyone having a differing opinion than they do, without hurling invective and personal animus. That's okay, I'd wear the uniform to defend your right to insult me again, just the same.

A small irony amongst this lil' poker blogger community is this. I wonder of all of you who have decided to deviate from the path of debate, to simply insulting those you disagree with...how many of you have ever actually performed any service for anyone other than yourself at all? Any military service? Any Peace Corps vets? Any Americorps? Any soup kitchen volunteering? I'm sure there's a few of you out there, please share with us your stories of service for the benefit of others.

By the way, a HUGE pair of congratulations to Evy for her fantastic finish at Event 1 of the Borgata series. Very well done!

The Problem With Palin

The problem with Sarah Palin as Republican veep candidate has absolutely nothing to do with unwed pregnant daughters, or being a former beauty queen, or being the mayor of such a small town, or any of that. It's that she's a lying sack of shit, and no different than what's come out of the White House for the last eight years.

She claims to be against pork barrel projects, yet as mayor, hired the city's first ever Washington lobbyist for the sole purpose of getting earmarks for Wasilla.

She claims to be a corruption challenger, but used to head a 527 group created for the sole purpose of supporting Ted Stevens.

She claims to have said "no thanks" to the Bridge to Nowhere, yet fully supported it prior to becoming governor, and only stopped the project AFTER taking some of the money from the feds and reallocating it to other projects.

Alaska has some of the worst high school graduation rates in America. She claims that human-caused climate change is unproven and based on vague science (and yet she supports teaching Creationism in schools as actual science).

She is against federal funding for stem cell research, yet claims to be an advocate of special needs children. By "advocate", it's clear what she meant was that she's an advocate of using special needs children as political props, particularly her own. I can't wait for the campaign button of lil' Trig that says "Vote for Mom!"

The problem with Sarah Palin is not that she's a woman. There are plenty of women in politics today qualified to serve as vice-president (and by that token, as president), from either party. Whether or not you agree with their views or politics is one thing, but wonderfully smart and accomplished women from Olympia Snowe, to Janet Napolitano, to Mary Landrieu, to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, to Hillary Clinton, to Kathleen Sebelius, Democrats and Republicans both, all are far far far more qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. The problem is not that she's got ovaries and children, because that is certainly not a problem.

The problem is that she is as dishonest and conniving a politician as anyone who has ever been part of the Bush administration. Palin claims to be a maverick, and yet is no more than a parrot of the most extreme positions of the current administration. That she wears a skirt, skort, or pantsuit is utterly irrelevant and immaterial. That she's attempted to have certain books banned, and abuses power to fire a state police chief, as part of a petty family squabble, are problems. That she practices the Karl Rove guide to law enforcement hiring and firing is a problem.

What's sad is that the Republican party has stooped to such pandering. The right wing pundits are crying wolf by complaining about alleged sexist rebuttals of Palin's qualifications and candidacy. The real sexism is that practiced by McCain and the Rove-trained operatives who decided along the lines of "hey, let's put some young hot female politician on the ticket, surely that will capture the former Hilary vote". Now that is sexist, particuarly so in that it completely discredits the notion that women will care more about the candidate's gender than they will about her positions, which stand in diametric opposition to virtually everything Hillary Clinton believes in.

What's sadder is that it represents the final destination of John McCain's long trip from being an actual conservative yet independent minded politician, to the desperate trench of following Rush Limbaugh's beckon call, for the sole purpose of fulfilling his lifetime naked ambition of political power. If candidate McCain believes in "straight talk", why does he choose for a running mate someone whose actual actions stand completely apposite to what she says they are?

And to candidate Palin, why do you feel the need to lie about your record, if you're as proud of it as you claim to be?

Frankly, of all the post-veep nomination speech commentary I've come across, on both sides, feminist stalwart Gloria Steinem seems to have distilled the issue the best, in today's Los Angeles Times, including the following highlights:

"Now she is being praised by McCain's campaign as a tax cutter, despite the fact that Alaska has no state income or sales tax."

"Palin shares nothing but a chromosome with Clinton. Her down-home, divisive and deceptive speech did nothing to cosmeticize a Republican convention that has more than twice as many male delegates as female, a presidential candidate who is owned and operated by the right wing and a platform that opposes pretty much everything Clinton's candidacy stood for..."

Of course, post-convention, the Republicans will enjoy their brief bounce, that's only natural and expected. However, well-reasoned commentators will soon latch on to the fact that there is so much wrong with Palin as a candidate on things that have absolutely nothing to do with her gender, her motherhood, her children, or anything else. You want to link McCain to a "3rd Bush term"? Why not, McCain did so when he picked Palin, straight out of the extreme right wing casting pool. And that is why November is not going to be good for Republicans this year.

I know Miami Don's going to disagree, as he cites Real Clear Politics' reviews as being 100% positive on Palin's speech, and claims Palin is a far cry from Bush, when the evidence indicates the opposite to be true. After all, that's where I found the Steinem review, as well as those from Jonathan Alter, Froma Harrop, and others.

That's okay, I support his right to be wrong. In fact, as a veteran, I helped defend his right to be wrong. It's not the left that's "angry", it's the right that is not only angry, but spiteful, vengeful, and hateful of everything and everyone that's not exactly like them. And Palin has shown herself to be cut from the same cloth.

Meet the New Rox

Same as the old Rox.

Coming into September 6 games back, and the team may be catching fire once again. Of course, our record is about seven games worse than it was this time last year, but then, so are the records of the teams ahead of us in the division. Being able to soulcrush Tim Lincecum helped.

Anyway, it's been a very poker-lite week for me. Skipped the bloggerments for my anniversary, and was more than happy to do so.

One drawback of having pulled most of my roll off Bodog is that I'm playing at much lower limits, such that when I managed to take 4th place in a $2R MTT last weekend, it was only good for $30. Talk about playing small ball. My poker weekend consisted of winning a $4 SNG for a $12 score, the $2R MTT, and finishing up 20 big blinds at a cash table that was....drumroll......05/.10. Ha! At these levels, I can't even really get interested in hand analysis, as I'm a firm believer that most online donks don't actually put much thought into how they play buy-ins this small, such that the idea of making plays is lost on your opponents, for the most part. Just stick with solid TAG, saute with a few well-timed blind steals, and you'll do okay long term.

But that's okay, we can rebuild him, we have the technology.

Since then, all I've played is a pair of the superturbo chippies at Full Tilt, where I went out 3rd and 5th, respectively, for one mincash. Of course, when I went out 3rd, it was to a river 2-outer, but at these levels, I no longer care. It's pennant chase season!!

In fact, how can you tell your wife loves you as much as you love her? When she gives you a Jeff Francis-autographed ball for your anniversary.

In fact, I gotta start finding more topics to blog about, simply because I'm not playing a lot of poker these days. That's really just a phase, as my loves of baseball and music are taking center stage lately, and that's fine. It's allowed me to let the bad beats that still come, totally slide off my back now. This is one of those times when poker just isn't that important.

Monolith is coming up in a couple weeks, and while I'm still excited, I have to admit I'm not nearly as jazzed about my VIP passes now that Neko Case and The Black Angels no longer appear on the schedule. Those were the two artists I most wanted to see.

Still, Monolith is a great place to find some of what's likely to be the most interesting music of 2008-2009, and I'm really looking forward to seeing White Denim, Superdrag, Blitzen Trapper, and many more. Just not nearly as over the top excited.

Nevertheless, the weather's gorgeous here, and I've got a club-level seat for our sweep game against the Giants today, as Aaron Cook is about to lead us to a pounding over Barry Zito. I can't believe we haven't been fortunate enough to face Zito yet this year, as he's become as hittable as...well...as Leeeeeevan Hernandez. Bring your own broom!

Update: That game was fuckin' weaksauce. Still a nice day at the ballpark, but thanks for making Barry Zito look like CC Sabathia, boys.

What's More Important Than Pokerz

Love is...

...spending your third anniversary with your spouse watching your favorite team shut out a division rival, shopping for matching Rockies hoodies, and then enjoying a lovely take home of panang curry, yum talay, and the best damn fried wontons ever.

It was three years ago today when the Good Doctor Mondo and I tied it all up at midnight, with Elvis as our witnesss (thankyou...thankyouverymuch), in good old Las Vega$. And pretty much the best three years of my life since.

Jenn, I do love you.